More ITV Racing tips and trends today as the Newmarket July Festival 2022 gets going on Thursday (7th July). The ITV horse racing cameras are at the track to take in four LIVE races, that include the Group Two July Stakes (2:25). Andy Newton is also on-hand with the key big-race trends and his best bets across today’s four LIVE ITV races.
Plus, grab a £30 FREE BET with or friends at 888Sport (bet £10, get £30) to use on the LIVE ITV Racing from Newmarket this Thursday.
**TOP TIPPING** Last Saturday, Andy Newton had 4 winners (from 7) with his ITV racing tips – Nathanael Green (6/1), Free Wind (11/4), Sinjaari (7/2) & Vadeni (11/4)
Newmarket July Festival 2022
ITV Horse Racing Tips On Thursday 7th July 2022
1:50 Newmarket: MASEKELA @ 15/8 with 888Sport2:25 Newmarket: LITTLE BIG BEAR @ 6/4 with 888Sport3:00 Newmarket: DEODAR (e/w) @ 10/1 with 888Sport3:35 Newmarket: YIBIR @ 5/4 with 888Sport
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RELATED: Newmarket Races Today – Racecards, results, tips and latest betting
Newmarket July Festival 2022 Trends and Tips – Day One, Thursday 7th July 2022
1.50 – Bahrain Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f ITV
20/20 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
17/20 – Failed to win last time out
16/20 – Never run on the Newmarket July Course before
12/20 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
12/20 – Had won over 1m2f (or further) before
12/20 – Favourites placed in the top three
12/20 – Won at 3/1 or shorter
10/20 – Finished fifth or worse in their previous race
6/20 – Winning favourites
SPORTSLENS BEST BETS: It’s hard to ignore the excellent fourth from the Andrew Balding-trained MASEKELA @ 15/8 with 888Sport in the Epsom Derby last time out. He ran on well that day to suggest the step up to 1m5f here will suit and the form of the Derby has been franked since with the third – Westover – winning the Irish Derby easily last month.
Of the rest, Godolphin’sWalk Of Stars and the Ryan Moore-ridden Zechariah look big threats but the with just four career runs there might be more to come from the James Ferguson runner – DEAUVILLE LEGEND (e/w) @ 7/1 with 888Sport – who looks another that will enjoy the longer trip and will strip fitter his last run that came off a 2 month break.
2.25 – Close Brothers July Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6fITV
19/20 – Had won over 5 or 6f previously
18/20 – Placed in their last run
17/20 – Had 2 or more previous career starts
15/20 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
12/20 – Won their last race
11/20 – Won at 9/2 or shorter
10/20 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their last race
10/20 – Unplaced favourites
7/20 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard (9 wins in total)
6/20 – Winning favourites
1/20 – Winners that came from stall 1
Frankie Dettori has ridden 5 winners in the race
SPORTSLENS BEST BETS: The Richard Hannon yard have a top record in this race – winning 7 of the last 20, so it’s hard to ignore their recent Coventry Stakes runner-up Persian Force. However, LITTLE BIG BEAR @ 6/4 with 888Sport, who landed the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot just edges it.
That win came over 5f and his only run over 6f was a defeat (close second), but that came on his debut and looks a much stronger horse now. Breeding suggests this Aidan O’Brien-trained 2 year-old is ready to move up in trip again and the form of his Royal Ascot win has been boosted with the runner-up – Rocket Rodney – winning easily at Sandown last week. The O’Brien camp won this race in 2019.
Mysterious Night andBrave Nation can do best of the rest.
3.00 – Bet Boost At Bet365 Handicap Cl2 6f ITV
16/16 – Had won no more than 3 times before
14/16 – Didn’t win last time out
14/16 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
14/16 – Had won over 6f before
13/16 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
13/16 – Carried 8-12 or less
13/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
12/16 – Had 3 or 4 previous runs that season
12/16 – Came from a double-figure stall
11/16 – Unplaced favourites
8/16 – Finished unplaced last time out
0/16 – Winning favourites
SPORTSLENS BEST BETS: With 14 of the last 16 winners NOT winning last time out, then one of the better fancied runners –Khanjar – is overlooked, while Twelfth Knight is the other recent winner in the field.
13 of the last 16 winners carried 8-12 or less too, so the top five on the card – Hierarchy, Witch Hunter, Khunan, Gisburn andBosh all have this stat to overcome.
So, the one that stands out is the Ralph Beckett runner – DEODAR (e/w) @ 10/1 with 888Sport – who also has Ryan Moore riding. This 3 year-old is well drawn in 16 (12 of the last 16 winners came from a double-figure stall) and has a nice racing weight of 8-11. The first time blinkers are also on and after getting tired over 7f last time here at HQ, the drop back to 6f is a huge plus.
Of the rest, Tom Marquand is an interesting jockey booking for the Mick Channon runner – INGRA TOR (e/w) @ 8/1 with 888Sport and this one sports the first-time visor too. He was a good winner on the Rowley Mile course here two runs ago and despite not being able to back that up at York last time – that run looked too bad to be true and is worth giving another chance to.
3.35 – Princess Of Wales´s Close Brothers Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m4fITV
18/20 – Aged 4 or older (4 year-olds have won 11 of last 14)
18/20 – Previously won over at least 1m4f
16/20 – Had 2 or more runs that season
16/20 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
14/20 – Won at 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race before
14/20 – Unplaced in their previous race
11/20 – Favourites that were placed
10/20 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their previous race
5/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won it 9 times in total)
5/20 – Won by trainer Mark Johnston
4/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
Godolphin have won 3 of the last 8 runnings
SPORTSLENS BEST BETS: This looks a bit of a shoot-out between the Gosden-trained Mostahdaf and the Godolphin runner – YIBIR @ 5/4 with 888Sport. The former was last seen running second in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot – beaten 3 1/4 lengths behind Broome – but, for me, he’s still got a bit to prove over this 1m4f trip.
Prior to that he’d run Bay Bridge to second in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown, but that horse has since been beaten twice so has hardly franked the form.
That leaves us with YIBIR, who is the top-rated in the race and also has winning form over this trip and at the track. He won the Bahrain Trophy here last season over 1m5f so we know he stays. He’s not been seen since running third in the Man O War Stakes at Belmont Park (US) and being a beaten favourite in his last three races, does come with risks too.
But this is a race the Godolphin team have a fair record in (won 3 of the last 9) and a 2 month break would have freshened Yibir up well for this run and gets the verdict.
Living Legend and the Frankie-ridden New Mandate can fight it out for the places, while it’s interesting that Godolphin also have Global Storm and West End Charmer in the race.
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