The John Smith’s Cup 2022 is the main race at York races this Saturday (9th July) as we get set for another ultra-competitive renewal of what is the longest commercial sponsored flat race in the UK. Andy Newton takes a look at the latest betting, each horses probability of winning and the main 2022 July Cup trends.
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What Time Is The 2022 John Smith’s Cup
Time: 4:05pm (UK time)
Date: Saturday 9th July 2022
Racecourse: York Races
Winner: £103,080
TV: RacingTV, ITV
DID YOU KNOW Trainer Andrew Balding has won the John Smith’s Cup twice in the last three years.
John Smith’s Cup Cup Trends and Stats
Help find the winner of this Saturday’s 2022 John Smith’s Cup at York races using our key trends and stats
18/20 – Returned 20/1 or shorter in the betting18/20 – Had won over 1m1f or further before17/20 – Aged 5 or younger14/20 – Had between 3-5 previous runs already that season13/20 – Came from stall 9 or higher13/20 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting13/20 – Carried 9-3 or less11/20 – Top 4 finish in their previous race11/20 – Aged 4 years-old11/20 – Officially rated between 99-10510/20 – Had run at York before6/20 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out3/20 – Won by trainer Richard Fahey3/20 – Trained by William Haggas2/20 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (2 of last 9)2/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)Since 1960 just one winner older than 69 of the last 11 winners aged 4 or 5The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 12/1Rogue Bear Is Our 2022 John Smith’s Cup Tip
This year’s John Smith’s Cup is super competitive as always, but there are some fair trends to help. 17 of the last 20 winners were aged 5 or younger, which is bad news forCaradoc, Intellogent andCockalorum, who are all 7 year-olds.
The William Haggas yard has won 2 of the last 9 runnings so it’s no shock to see their Mahrajaan popular in the betting, but draw 5 might not be ideal.
The consistent Anmaat is another to note, but does have 9-8 to carry, but ROGUE BEAR (e/w) @ 6/1 with 10Bet, who was ony just denied here at York last time out, ticks a lot of boxes with draw 14 a plus, his age (4) and a nice racing weight of 8-10. With 13 of the last 20 winners carriying 9-3 or less and coming from stall 9 or higher.
He’s only up 2lbs from that last run but connections have also freshened him up with 2 months off and this has looked the target since that last outing, when well-backed into favourite.
BACK ROGUE BEAR (e/w) @ 6/1 with 10Bet
John Smith’s Cup 2022 – Best Outsiders To Bet On
Of the rest, the Andrew Balding yard have won 2 of the last 3 runnings so their GOOD BIRTHDAY (e/w) @ 33/1 with 10Bet andACHELOIS (e/w) @ 18/1 with 10Bet are the picks of those at bigger prices. Good Birthday is a consistent 6 year-old that has a nice draw in 23 and only has 8-11 to carry. Connections have also booked William Cox to ride to take off another 3lbs, while he’s finished in the top 3 in 45% of his 31 races (5 wins).
Achelois ran too bad to be true in a Listed race at Ayr last time so if you can forgive that run then based on his second at Epsom the time before can go well too. He’s also got the useful Harry Davies on to claim 5lbs and connections have also freshened him up with a few months off.
85% Of The Last 20 John Smith’s Cup Winners Were Aged 5 or Younger
A huge stat to take into the race and although most will fit this age trend there are still a few that it knocks out, including a few well-fancied sorts – Caradoc, Intellogent, Cockalorum and What’s The Story, who are all 7 or 8 year-olds.
13 Of The Last 20 John Smith’s Cup Winners Carried 9st 3lbs or Les and Came From Stalls 9 or Higher
This trends works out at 65%, so not too shabby either. But if you combine the two stats (plus add these to the above mentioned age trend), then this will again draw a line through several of the 2022 John Smith’s Cup runners.
The horses that tick both these stats are Mahrajaan, Just Fine, Forest Falcon, The City’s Phantom, Good Birthday, Rogue Bear, Jewel In My Crown, First View and the reserve Love Is Golden.
John Smith’s Cup 2022 Latest Betting, Runners and Probability Of Winning
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| John Smith’s Cup Horse | Latest Odds | Win Probability | Bookmaker |
| MAHRAJAAN | 5/1 | 17% |  |
| ROGUE BEAR | 6/1 | 14% | |
| BRILLIANT LIGHT | 15/2 | 12% | |
| INTELLOGENT | 8/1 | 11% | |
| ANMAAT | 9/1 | 10% | |
| JUST FINE | 11/1 | 8% | |
| FIRST VIEW | 11/1 | 8% | |
| LA TRINIDAD | 12/1 | 7.7% | |
| CARADOC | 14/1 | 7% | |
| GREATGADIAN | 14/1 | 7% | |
| ACHELOIS | 18/1 | 5% | |
| JEWEL IN MY CROWN | 18/1 | 5% | |
| CERTAIN LAD | 18/1 | 5% | |
| CHICHESTER | 20/1 | 4.8% | |
| BARRYSHNIKOV | 22/1 | 4.2% | |
| SPIRIT DANCER | 25/1 | 4% | |
| FOREST FALCON | 28/1 | 3% | |
| GOOD BIRTHDAY | 33/1 | 3 | |
| WHAT’S THE STORY | 33/1 | 3% | |
| COCKALORUM | 40/1 | 3% | |
| MARIE’S DIAMOND | 50/1 | 2% | |
| THE CITY’S PHANTOM | 66/1 | 1.5% | |
| LOVE IS GOLDEN (Res) | N/R | 0% | |
All odds correct as of 09:55 BST on Fri, 9 July and subject to change
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