The July Cup 2022 is the feature race on the final day of the Newmarket July Festival this Saturday (9th July) and we look set for a ‘must-see’ contest with recent Royal Ascot scorers – Perfect Power and Naval Crown – two of the big names entered. Andy Newton takes a look at the latest betting, each horses probability of winning and the main 2022 July Cup trends.
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What Time Is The 2022 July Cup
Time: 4:25pm (UK time)
Date: Saturday 9th July 2022
Racecourse: Newmarket Races
Winner: £356,422 (Group One)
TV: RacingTV, ITV
DID YOU KNOW 19 of the last 20 July Cup winners aged 5 or younger, while 15 of the last 20 were UK-trained and ran at Royal Ascot last time out.
July Cup Trends and Stats
Help find the winner of this Saturday’s 2022 July Cup at Newmarket using our key trends and stats
19/20 – Aged 5 or younger18/20 – Had won over 6f before17/20 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting16/20 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season15/20 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out15/20 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before15/20 – Won by a horse trained in the UK12/20 – Placed last time out9/20 – Ran last time out in either the King’s Stand Stakes or Diamond Jubilee9/20 – Unplaced favourites8/20 – Won their previous race5/20 – Winning favourites4/20 – Irish-trained winners (O’Brien trained 2 of the last 4 winners)The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 8/1Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times before (1999, 2001, 2010, 2018 & 2019)Perfect Power Our 2022 July Cup Tip
The Richard Fahey-trained PERFECT POWER @11/4 with 10bet is set to go off as the 2022 July Cup favourite and after a top win in the Group One Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot last month it’s easy to see why.
This 3 year-old had been tried over a mile in the 2000 Guineas at the end of April but didn’t seem to last home that day. He’s won over 7f so that seems his limit, but over this 6f trip – where he stays on powerfully – this looks his best distance.
He’s now won his last three tries over 6f and regular rider, Christophe Soumillon is making the trip over to ride – the Belgium jockey is 4-from-5 on the horse.
Having also already won three Group One races we know he can deliver at the highest level, plus being a 3 year-old gets a handy 6lb weight pull with three of his main rivals – Artorius, Creative Force and Naval Crown.
BACK PERFECT POWER @ 11/4 with 10bet
July Cup 2022 – Best Of The Rest
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the July Cup 5 times in the past so his runner Cadamosto can’t be ruled out of those at bigger prices, but does have just over 2 lengths to find with Perfect Power on their runs in the Commonwealth Cup last time.
Aussie raider – Artorius – looks Perfect Power’s main threat based on the betting. He was a close third to Naval Crown in the Platinum Jubilee at Royal Ascot last time out and with that coming off a 3 month break should be much sharper this time. He does have to give 6lbs away to Perfect Power though.
The Godolphin camp have a string hand too. They run the already mentioned Naval Crown, who won the Platinum Jubilee Stakes last time and their other runner – Creative Force – was runner-up in that same race. So, with just a neck and 1/2 a length between the first three home in that Group One, you really can make a case for them all against Perfect Power.
However, the fact the trio all have to give 6lbs away to the Fahey horse just swings it for me.
Former Coronation Stakes winner – Alcohol Free – is another to note, but seems to have lost his way a bit this season, while the Michael Owen-owned Flaming Rib will have his backers too after running second to Perfect Power last time at Royal Ascot (1 1/4 lengths).
Finally, with 19 of the last 20 July Cup winners aged 5 or younger, then the two 6 year-olds in the race – Romantic Proposal andEmaraaty Ana – will have this key stat to overcome.
Favourites Have A 25% Strike-rate In The Last 20 Runnings
We’ll have to see nearer the off time which horse is going to go off as the 2022 July Cup favourite, but at this stage it looks a straight shootout betweenPerfect Power and the Aussie runner – Artorius.
The former looks the more likely to edge it, but with only around a point difference in the betting this can change very quickly. The ‘good new’ though is that whichever horse goes off as the July Cup jolly it means they’ve got around a 25% chance of winning based on the recent performances of the market leader in this race (last 20 runnings).
75% Of The Last 20 July Cup Winners Ran At Royal Ascot
Most of the July Cup runners fit the bill here, including the five in the betting – Perfect Power, Artorius, Creative Force, Naval Crown andFlaming Rib – but it’s still a key trend to have on your radar with Romantic Proposal and King Hermes two that DIDN’T run at Royal Ascot last time out.
July Cup 2022 Latest Betting, Runners and Probability Of Winning
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| July Cup Horse | Latest Odds | Win Probability | Bookmaker |
| PERFECT POWER | 11/4 | 27% |  |
| CREATIVE FORCE | 5/1 | 17% | |
| NAVAL CROWN | 5/1 | 17% | |
| ARTORIUS | 11/2 | 15% | |
| ROMANTIC PROPOSAL | 9/1 | 10% | |
| FLAMING RIB | 11/1 | 8% | |
| ALCOHOL FREE | 14/1 | 7% | |
| HAPPY ROMANCE | 16/1 | 6% | |
| TWILIGHT JET | 22/1 | 4.5% | |
| CADAMOSTO | 25/1 | 4% | |
| KING HERMES | 33/1 | 3% | |
| EMARAATY ANA | 40/1 | 2.5% | |
| DOUBLE OR BUBBLE | 50/1 | 2% | |
| BLACKROD | N/R | 0% | |
All odds correct as of 09:44 BST on Sat 9 July and subject to change
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