Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…

Andrew found York winner SHOULDVEBEENARING on Thursday and has seven stats-based selections for the racing action on Friday, August 19th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:

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NEWBURY 1.10

PURPLE LOVE (system – Amo Racing-owned newcomers)

Owners Amo Racing have a fine strike-rate with newcomers, scoring with 23 of the 99 qualifiers for a profit of £34.50. PURPLE LOVE looks a likely type on paper and can give connections yet another debut winner.

YORK 4.45

NO BARRIER (system – Kingman colts, first-time out, 7f+ on turf)

Juvenile progeny of the sire Kingman have a great record on their racecourse debuts, especially the colts who are running over 7f or further on turf. Nineteen of the 64 qualifiers won for a profit of £82.45 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£129% on turnover).

Since Neil Callan returned from Hong Kong, he has a solid record when riding for Kevin Ryan and newcomer NO BARRIER could be the answer to this competitive maiden. With the ground on the inside rail cut up after two days of racing, those drawn middle to high could enjoy an edge – as was the case in the final two races on the card yesterday – and his stall 11 draw looks handy.

SALISBURY 6.00

HURTLE (system – Paul & Oliver Cole, beaten in first-time blinkers last time, no blinkers now)

It’s well documented that the Cole yard has a fine record with first-time blinkers but those that are beaten in the headgear often bounce if the blinkers are left off next time. This century, 22 of the 129 qualifiers have won for a profit of £74.12. HURTLE, runner-up at Brighton last time. Swaps blinkers for a first-time tongue-tie and can go one better. The step up from 7f from 1m should suit.

NEWCASTLE 6.29

BOWLAND PARK (system – Daniel & Claire Kubler, long travellers)

The Kubler yard has a great record when travelling one of their horses more than 250 miles to the races, scoring with 15 of the 68 qualifiers (22.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £60.05 to a £1 level stake at SP. With the stable in fine form (four winners from 14 runners in the past fortnight), it could be worth siding with BOWLAND PARK in this 1m2f handicap.

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SALISBURY 6.35

STORMBUSTER (system – Andrew Balding 2yos, third career start, turf)

Andrew Balding’s juveniles sometimes have a cracking record on their third outing, provided it’s on turf. Had we backed all 151 qualifiers we’d have found 42 winners (27.8%) and made a profit of £71.13 to a £1 level stake at SP.

The last four qualifiers have recorded form figures of 1211 (3-4), including Wednesday’s 7-2 York winner Chaldean. STORMBUSTER, third at Newbury and Sandown in his two previous runs, looks good value at around 10-1 to get off the mark this evening.

NEWCASTLE 7.39

AL MOTASIM (system – Hugo Palmer, Lope De Vega, all-weather)

Trainer Hugo Palmer does well with progeny of Lope De Vega on the all-weather, scoring with 14 of the 35 qualifiers (40%) for a profit of £35.42 to the usual £1 stake. He’s run nine individual horses by this sire on synthetics and seven of them have won (both exceptions had just two all-weather runs and one finished second and third).

Two of his Lope De Vega’s were making their all-weather debuts and they finished first (9-2) and second (11-4), AL MOTASIM, who cost 140,000gns, was a best-priced 8-1 at the time of writing and looks worth chancing on his debut.

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.25

TAHASUN (system – Tamayuz, Wolverhampton, aged 2-4)

Backing young progeny (aged two, three of four) of the sire Tamayuz on Wolverhampton’s Tapeta surface would have found 25 winners from 138 bets (18.1%) for a profit of £45.23 to a £1 level stake at SP.

Henry Spiller’s TAHASUN has only raced here once before, finishing second by a neck in a maiden over today’s 9.4f trip. The Gosden horse who beat him that day when fourth in a Listed race next time and is now rated 87, suggesting today’s mark of 75 could be on the generous side.

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Other Horse Racing Tips Today

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