In what will be the marquee game of the weekend for the Week 18 slate of NFL games, the Buffalo Bills will be traveling to take on the Miami Dolphins. The winner will take home the division crown in the AFC East, with the loser dropping down into a wild card spot or completely out of the postseason picture entirely. Miami will be looking to hold the lead that they’ve enjoyed since mid-way through the season, but if history is any indication, they’ll have a hard time securing their first division crown since 2008.

Bills Are 10-1 In Last 11 Games Against Dolphins

If the Dolphins upset the Bills on Sunday

*First AFC East title since 2008

*Top 2 AFC seed first time since 1992

*First time with 12 wins since 1990

— Joe Schad (@schadjoe) January 2, 2024

It hasn’t been pretty for the Dolphins in their matchups with the Bills since Josh Allen was drafted. Buffalo’s quarterback has played some of the best games of his career against Miami, as he always seems to be extra productive when playing against the division foes.

Most importantly, the Bills have been dominant in the win column. Since December 2018, Buffalo and Miami has squared off 11 times, with Allen and company winning 10 of them. The only loss came in Week 3 of the 2022 season, a two point win by the Dolphins on a scorching day in South Florida. It has been complete dominance by the Bills otherwise, including the 48-20 beat down of Miami just a week after the Dolphins put up 70 points against the Broncos.

Buffalo Will be Favored For Sunday Night’s Game

Bills have the 3rd best odds to win the Super Bowl (+800)…

And can still miss the playoffs with Dolphins, Jags and Steelers wins. Bills to miss playoffs parlay is +439

(via @DKSportsbook) pic.twitter.com/niZaN6CzlX

— br_betting (@br_betting) January 2, 2024

Given the history, and the late-season surge by Buffalo, the Bills are 3-point road favorites for the game this Sunday. The contest will hold so much weight that the NFL has flexed it into the prime time slot for the weekend, meaning that it will be the final regular season game played for all teams in the 2023 campaign.

On the flip side of Buffalo’s recent success, Miami had a serious gut check last week when they were demolished by the Ravens in a must-have game for their division hopes. Not only is the team facing some serious adversity in the way of proving themselves against top teams, but they are heading into Sunday’s massive matchup with some of their most important players banged up or on the injured reserved list.

Miami has already secured a playoff spot, and would drop down into the 6th seed should they lose. But there is a scenario in which the Bills miss the playoffs entirely, and they could be fighting to either win the division or be kicked out of the postseason come 8:20PM on Sunday night.