After a 6-6 start, the Buffalo Bills have a chance to win the AFC East should they be victorious in Week 18. They have a chance to finish as high as the #2 seed overall in the AFC, but there is a scenario for the final week of the season that could keep Josh Allen and company out of the postseason altogether. And it isn’t all that far-fetched, either.

Bills Could Be #2 Seed Or Out Completely

Scenario: If the #Jaguars and #Steelers win, and the #Texans–#Colts game does not end in a tie, it’s win or go home for the #Bills on Sunday night against the #Dolphins:

Win, and the Bills win the AFC East and get the #2 seed in the playoffs.

Lose, and Buffalo is ELIMINATED.… https://t.co/8z0i7Z8IkQ pic.twitter.com/eR5jdS0e6O

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) January 1, 2024

The formula is simple for the goals they want to achieve: win and you’re in. Not only in, but if the Bills defeat the Miami Dolphins in prime time this coming weekend, then they’ll be crowned division champions and will host a wild card playoff game.

It would signify quite the turnaround, as they had just a 15% chance of qualifying for the postseason just a handful of weeks ago. They were well out of the conversation for the division as well, as Miami was pulling away in mid-November. But four straight wins by Buffalo has them in position for a winner take all game, and they could enter the playoffs as the hottest team in the league and one of the most dangerous.

But if the underdog Dolphins win on Sunday, the Bills face a situation that could send them home for good for the year. They would drop to 10-7 on the year, which would put them into a tie with the Steelers, if Pittsburgh is able to defeat the Ravens in Week 18. Due to a tiebreaker, the Steelers would get the nod over the Bills.

Buffalo Rooting Against Jags & Steelers This Weekend

The Bills playing in a Week 18 game for the 2 seed or to miss the playoffs is so perfect for this 2023 Bills season

— Big Cat (@BarstoolBigCat) January 1, 2024

But the Jaguars would need to win as well to keep Buffalo out. Jacksonville will win the division with a victory over the Titans on Sunday, but would give up the title to the winner of the Colts vs Texans game (both 9-7) should they come up short. The Jags are the only one of the three AFC South contenders to not have the tiebreaker over the Bills, meaning they will likely have to win in order to simply keep their playoff spot.

Three things have to break the wrong way for the Buffalo Bills to be kept out of the playoffs, and two of them are favored to happen. The Jaguars will be fighting for their season and are 3.5 point favorites over the Titans, and the Steelers have the same betting margin over the Ravens due to Baltimore likely resting most of their starters with the #1 seed wrapped up.

But the all important game and ultimate deciding factor has the Bills as a 3-point favorite for their game against the Dolphins this weekend.